FYI Covid Update: AstriCon 2021 Goes Virtual - Bring on IncrediCon

[Brianmac]

Well known prophylactics

A) Masks
B) Vaccine
C) Firewall
D) Fail2ban

You don't HAVE to any of them but you put yourself (and others ) at risk if you don't use them all

couldn't resist....

 

[KNERD]

I thought you guys hated Fauci and didn't believe anything he said
P
rophylactics don't absolutely prevent but rational people understand that they are helpful in reducing risk and so considered 'good ideas', neither C nor D are 100% the are still 'good ideas' though.

Israel, Once the Model for Beating Covid, Faces New Surge of Infections​

One of the most vaccinated societies, Israel now has one of the highest infection rates in the world, raising questions about the vaccine’s efficacy.

Israel, Once the Model for Beating Covid, Faces New Surge of Infections (Published 2021)

One of the most vaccinated societies, Israel now has one of the highest infection rates in the world, raising questions about the vaccine’s efficacy.

www.nytimes.com

 

[wardmundy]

@KNERD: The context for the article is important. "The vast majority of Israel’s older population had received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by the end of February [2021]... Data published by Israel’s Ministry of Health in late July suggested that the Pfizer shot was just 39 percent effective against preventing infection in the country in late June and early July, compared with 95 percent from January to early April. In both periods, however, the shot was more than 90 percent effective in preventing severe disease." That means the vaccine age is now 6 months or more which is the very reason the U.S. is now recommending third boosters. [Emphasis added.]

 

[KNERD]

@KNERD: The context for the article is important. "The vast majority of Israel’s older population had received two doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine by the end of February [2021]... Data published by Israel’s Ministry of Health in late July suggested that the Pfizer shot was just 39 percent effective against preventing infection in the country in late June and early July, compared with 95 percent from January to early April. In both periods, however, the shot was more than 90 percent effective in preventing severe disease." That means the vaccine age is now 6 months or more which is the very reason the U.S. is now recommending third boosters. [Emphasis added.]

Then it seems to me is those who are better off in health wise, would best to just get sick, and not depend on any vaccine which seems to be diminishing in ability to fend off the virus.

 

[krzykat]

Then it seems to me is those who are better off in health wise, would best to just get sick, and not depend on any vaccine which seems to be diminishing in ability to fend off the virus.

And you've not heard of people that get the virus that get it again? You are implying that your bodies immunity from having Covid are better and longer lasting than those that have gotten the mRNA vaccine. Do you have any statistical data that substantiates that?

 

[ostridge]

B) Vaccine

I think you're a bit OT, unless maybe you were thinking Anti Virals or something?

 

[KNERD]

And you've not heard of people that get the virus that get it again? You are implying that your bodies immunity from having Covid are better and longer lasting than those that have gotten the mRNA vaccine. Do you have any statistical data that substantiates that?

The fact that less than a year, Pfizer is is already telling people they need a third shot.

Remember this just recently?





Then there is this about your question




So it seems the ones caught it, are recovered are safer. Thus the folks who got sick should have AstriCon, and the "vaccinated" ones stay away!

 

[krzykat]

So it seems the ones caught it, are recovered are safer. Thus the folks who got sick should have AstriCon, and the "vaccinated" ones stay away!

Interesting read from National Institute of Health on that subject. What about the 3rd group? Those that are not vaccinated or prior known infection?

Bring on Astricon and I'll go.

 

[KNERD]

Interesting read from National Institute of Health on that subject. What about the 3rd group? Those that are not vaccinated or prior known infection?

Bring on Astricon and I'll go.

I would fall into that 3rd group. I have no intention of getting that vaccine as the long term affects are unknown. A few of my relatives got it, but the ones who got it fall into the higher age bracket who could get very sick from the virus.

I got a lot more life, and plan to keep it that way. With that, I don't go around wearing a mask unless I have to. Nearly been two years of shopping, visiting friends, and such, and have not caught it that I am aware of. With 99.9% recovery rate. I think I would take my chances.

I know I caught that Mexican swine flu back in 2009. wow was I sick. Normally I just get sick for a couple of days, then it is over. With that, I was sick a total of two weeks. After week one, I had to go get antibiotics, and another week to get fully well. Looking at the stats, it seems the recovery rate was nearly the same as COVID .

 

[Eliad]

I would fall into that 3rd group. I have no intention of getting that vaccine as the long term affects are unknown. A few of my relatives got it, but the ones who got it fall into the higher age bracket who could get very sick from the virus.

I got a lot more life, and plan to keep it that way. With that, I don't go around wearing a mask unless I have to. Nearly been two years of shopping, visiting friends, and such, and have not caught it that I am aware of. With 99.9% recovery rate. I think I would take my chances.

I know I caught that Mexican swine flu back in 2009. wow was I sick. Normally I just get sick for a couple of days, then it is over. With that, I was sick a total of two weeks. After week one, I had to go get antibiotics, and another week to get fully well. Looking at the stats, it seems the recovery rate was nearly the same as COVID .

I am not sure from where you got the statistic of 99.9% recovery rate from COVID, and let not forget the long post COVID symptoms which happens for 1 in 4 recovering COVID patient, especially long term neurological problems, this is definitely not like the flu.
At the end of the day for an individual the chance of getting the bad COVID is actually 50/50, no matter what the probability is, is like when you buy a lottery ticket, you either win or loose not matter what the odds are. And I really do not recall hospitals being overwhelmed with the seasonal flu to the point patients are lined up in hallways and in the hospital garage for treatment. In addition COVID patients overwhelming the hospital has a very serious impact on people suffering strokes, heart attacks, etc, because those people get delayed treatments and therefore significant injury which could have been prevented if they would have gotten timely treatment. At this time you really do not want to get any significant medical problem which require hospital stay, you will probably will receive subpar treatment. Do not fool yourself your personal choice does not affect people around you, it does, and they pay the price.
Also, keep in mind people who get really sick with COVID infection is not due to the virus itself, instead is their strong immune system which goes into the hyperstorm and destroy the lungs, heart, brain and many other organs.
By the way many other vaccines which we have require booster shoots, for example polio. Back in the day smallpox vaccine required booster too. It is true the real disease probably will give you better protection but do you want to take the chance to get polio?

 

[wardmundy]

@KNERD: The idea of the vaccine is to keep you out of the hospital and to keep you from dying. It doesn't give you 100% immunity from getting the virus. No vaccine does. But it's good to hear you have "a lot more life and plan to keep it that way." I'm curious. Do you really think the half million people in the U.S. that have died from Covid planned it that way? Many were perfectly healthy until they weren't. And finally there's this. If you get Covid, it may not kill you, but you may pass it on to someone that isn't so fortunate. Or maybe you'll take up the last bed in the ER that could have saved the life of somebody involved in a terrible car accident. Or perhaps you'll be the lucky one that produces the next Covid variant that completely avoids detection by the existing vaccines and puts us all back at square one. Isn't it ironic that every Covid patient on life support has no qualms about taking every life-saving drug they're offered without any of the efficacy concerns you've raised. Wonder why?

 

[KNERD]

I am not sure from where you got the statistic of 99.9% recovery rate from COVID, and let not forget the long post COVID symptoms which happens for 1 in 4 recovering COVID patient, especially long term neurological problems, this is definitely not like the flu.
At the end of the day for an individual the chance of getting the bad COVID is actually 50/50, no matter what the probability is, is like when you buy a lottery ticket, you either win or loose not matter what the odds are. And I really do not recall hospitals being overwhelmed with the seasonal flu to the point patients are lined up in hallways and in the hospital garage for treatment. In addition COVID patients overwhelming the hospital has a very serious impact on people suffering strokes, heart attacks, etc, because those people get delayed treatments and therefore significant injury which could have been prevented if they would have gotten timely treatment. At this time you really do not want to get any significant medical problem which require hospital stay, you will probably will receive subpar treatment. Do not fool yourself your personal choice does not affect people around you, it does, and they pay the price.
Also, keep in mind people who get really sick with COVID infection is not due to the virus itself, instead is their strong immune system which goes into the hyperstorm and destroy the lungs, heart, brain and many other organs.
By the way many other vaccines which we have require booster shoots, for example polio. Back in the day smallpox vaccine required booster too. It is true the real disease probably will give you better protection but do you want to take the chance to get polio?

It's been posted everywhere. The death rate for influenza is .001 percent. COVID-19 is 10x worse, making .01 percent of those who catch it will die.

COVID-19 causes at least 10 times more deaths than typical seasonal influenza, according to the authors of an analysis published Thursday by JAMA Internal Medicine.

COVID-19 at least 10 times deadlier than typical flu, analysis finds - UPI.com

COVID-19 causes at least 10 times more deaths than typical seasonal influenza, according to the authors of an analysis published by JAMA Internal Medicine.

www.upi.com

@wardmundy

But let's say you have a .01 percent chance of either dying a vehicle accident, or killing someone via driver error on your part, are you going to stop driving?


Maybe instead we have IncrediCon!

 

[Eliad]

It's been posted everywhere. The death rate for influenza is .001 percent. COVID-19 is 10x worse, making .01 percent of those who catch it will die.



@wardmundy

But let's say you have a .01 percent chance of either dying a vehicle accident, or killing someone via driver error on your part, are you going to stop driving?


Maybe instead we have IncrediCon!

I think you did not read through the article you posted the link. You are off with the decimals. Also, they state Covid is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu.
To use your analogy with driving. If I could take something to make any deadly accident into a scratch or a bruise I would happily do so. There are a bunch of idiots who don't know how to drive or they are stupid drunk when driving, it would be very nice if I would be protected from their poor choices.

 

[krzykat]

It's been posted everywhere. The death rate for influenza is .001 percent. COVID-19 is 10x worse, making .01 percent of those who catch it will die.

I'm tired of people that don't know math and statistics making these false claims. Let's take a little math class here:
There is one kid named Johnny in a school of 100 kids. What are the odds that any kid is named Johnny? 1% ... if you like you can say .01, but you can't say .01% ... that is literally dividing the outcome by 100. To get a percentage, you take the number of the control and divide it by the total sum. In our case, we divide 1 by 100 = .01 ... then to convert this to a percentage - we multiple by 100 ... therefore 1% in our example.

Now according to the US Census Bureau, there are approx 328 Million people in the USA. According to CDR, there are approximately 626 thousand people that have died from Covid in the US. Let's apply our same math formula. 626,000 / 328,000,000 = .0019 - let us know multiple that by 100 and we get our percentage ... 0.19%

0.19% of the entire US population has DIED from this disease. Many such as Knerd and myself have never had the disease, so we can definitely say that death rate is higher than the 0.19%.

When you say .01% that catch it will die is a flat out LIE. Either someone is feeding you misinformation or your math is faulty.

OK - so I just did another check on the internet and compliments of google, they state that there have been 37.5 million cases of Covid in the USA. Debate the number all you want, as I'm sure there are people that have had it and don't know, but if we take our same math ... then we would have 626,000 / 37,500,000 = .0167 - mutliply by 100 and we get a death rate of those infected with Covid of 1.67% !!! Holy shit - you said the death rate is .01% - you are off by a factor of 167 !!

This is what really aggregates me as I've heard these same silly stats before with someone that doesn't know math calculating, spreading it and it getting repeated.

I challenge you to correct my math and show me where I'm wrong.

 

[jerrm]

Your math is right, with the possible exception case count. Last CDC estimate was true case count is 3x-5x. There is a CDC page somewhere about "covid burden" that uses something along the lines of the 3x number, so case/death rate in the 0.5-0.6% range.

But...

95% of deaths are the 50+ crowd with only about 30-35% of the total case count. If your young(ish) and healthy, vaccine is questionable for your personal health.

 

[Eliad]

Lets not forget above numbers are only for death rates. What about people who got really sick and they are still suffering from the consequences of COVID infection.
Also, people who had other serious medical problems and suffered and died because hospitals were already full with COVID patients requiring intensive care. COVID is way worst than a simple flu.

 

[krzykat]

Let's also not forget about the long term ramifications of the Virus. Everyone speaks about the unknown long term effects of the vaccine. What about get the virus? It affects so many parts of the body and wreaks havoc on us. Who's to say this won't mean getting lung cancer 10 years from now. We don't know what we don't know - that goes for both the virus and the vaccine. What we do know ... Get the virus and your odds of dying go up dramatically. We also know that left to run amuck the virus will continue to mutate and potentially become more contagious (as evidenced by the delta variant).

 

[jerrm]

We don't know what we don't know - that goes for both the virus and the vaccine.

Weighing unknown v unknown is too nebulous for me to consider. I'm a numbers guy and look at data available.

We also know that left to run amuck the virus will continue to mutate and potentially become more contagious (as evidenced by the delta variant).

We don't know if the vaccine has a postive or negative impact on mutations. Pre-Pandemic/Pre-Politicized studies suggest imperfect non-sterilizing vaccines (precisely what the covid vaccine is) may encourage vaccine resistant strains to emerge.

The data on a third booster having a meaningful impact on Delta spread is pretty much non-existant. The FDA filings were more focused on the amount of non-Delta targeted antibodies generated and without much data on how that translates to actually preventing Delta. The 3rd booster feels more like a hail-mary/we might as well try it strategy.

Will I want my parents to get the booster - absolutely. Will I get it - maybe. Will I want my kids in their 20's to get it - probably not. For myself I'd need to see the 3rd booster create a more permanent resistance, or that the 2-shot resistance fades to the point there isn't any impact on lessening severity.

 

[mbellot]

The fact that less than a year, Pfizer is is already telling people they need a third shot.

Same reason you need a flu shot every season...

It's a cold virus, there is no cure or vaccine.

And until someone is legally liable for side effects it is just a free experiment with no control group for Pharma companies posting record quarterly profits...

 

[jerrm]

Same reason you need a flu shot every season...

Flu shot is a different animal completely. Each year's vaccine targets different strains, with 100+ years experience with the underlying tech.

Covid is just hoping more of the identical vaccine will make things better.

It's a cold virus, there is no cure or vaccine.

Exactly. There are reasons no other mRNA vaccine has been approved in the 30 years the tech has been around.

Was it just a lucky coincidence the tech happened to be ready when we needed it for covid? Or was it just acceptance that it was our fastest path to something that could help in an emergency, even if possibly imperfect?

There's nothing wrong with the latter.